Numb(er)struck

Posted on February 17, 2010 by David Oliver

Pretend you're not a tort lawyer but instead a criminal lawyer. The judge is going to decide whether your client should be committed or set free. Her decision will turn on the likelihood of your client committing an act of violence in the future. You and the prosecutor reach an agreement on the factors to be weighed and a risk assessment is thereafter produced. It shows that your client has a 26% chance of future violent behavior.

Question: How should you frame your case

(a)   there's only a 26% chance that he'll ever commit an act of violence;

(b)   there's a 74% chance that he'll never commit an act of violence; or

(c)   it doesn't make any difference?

If you answered either (a) or (c) you might want to read "The Effect of Framing Actuarial Risk Probabilities on Involuntary Civil Commitment Decisions" just published in the journal Law and Human Behavior.

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