Apparently forty really is the new thirty. In several (free) reviews of the state of current knowledge on aging you'll read that life expectancy hasn't, contrary to popular opinion, reached any preset limit and that those who reach "old age" in good health (Americans, Swiss and Japanese, anyway) not only have a lot of life left ahead of them but the accretion of extra life is accelerating. In the paper "Biodemography of Human Ageing" there's an especially eye-popping graph showing the age at which remaining life expectancy is either five or ten years for women. American women lead Swiss women and look to be pulling away, almost going straight up, at a rate similar to Japanese women.
That all this extra life will bring profound political and economic changes almost goes without saying. In personal injury litigation some of the changes wrought by significantly increased life expectancies are already here.
When I got out of law school a good liability wrongful death cancer claim by the children of an eighty-something decedent might have settled for $50,000.00.Typically there would have been little in the way of medical bills, nothing in the way of lost wages and the adult children would have been thought lucky to have had their parents around for so long. At one point I collected all the awards to grown-up and on-their-own children (40+) in toxic tort wrongful death cases for several years here in Texas and the average was $30,000/child with a median of about $25,000.
Recently I was involved in a case in which the decedent had been making $150,000/yr at age 80, incurred over $300,000 in medical bills and the family had already collected more than $1,000,000.00 settlements. And a focus group, in another matter, when asked "to what age should people reasonably expect to live" collectively picked 85 as the magic number though almost half said the number should be 100. One hundred. And do you know what? A child born today has better than even odds of living to 100 according to the actuaries.
Not only are damages going up, people are dodging things like heart attacks and strokes that used to kill them at much younger ages and so are living long enough to develop diseases with extraordinarily long latent periods. Expect to see more, and more different kinds of latent disease litigation.
Finally there's the future. First though imagine you're in a Navy shipyard in 1941 and someone tells you that the material you're using might kill you when you're in your eighties. Since your life expectancy is sixty or so you might not be too alarmed. In fact, you might be relieved since the eighty somethings you know are woefully decrepit. Now come back to 2010 and imagine someone just told you that using a common and ubiquitous material may cause you to die, prematurely, of cancer ... at 125. What would you do? What should we do?
All of the articles about aging (or ageing - blame the Brits) are free (and excellent) in this month's Nature Insight. If you're daunted by the science try the podcast instead.